The Waxing and Waning of Vermont’s Population

By Jennie Shurtleff

Between July 2020 and July 2021, Vermont’s population had a net increase of 4,864 people, largely due to the COVID pandemic. While this increase in a period of a year is dramatic, it is not the first time that Vermont has experienced a large influx of new residents to the area. Looking back at census data one can see that there have been a number of such increases, and comparing the dates of spikes and downturns in the population to what was happening at the time, one can see that most of these dramatic population changes were caused by historical events.

So how has Vermont’s population changed?

The Vermont Historical Society’s website has a compilation of Vermont census data starting with the year 1609. In 1609, before the arrival of European settlers, it is estimated that the area that is now Vermont and New Hampshire was a homeland to about 10,000 Abenaki people.   

The next date in the Vermont Historical Society’s chart is fifty-five years later, in 1764, when the estimated European settler population was 1,000. Unfortunately, the population of the Abenaki People does not continue to be tracked in this particular chart. Perhaps this is because many had perished from illnesses brought by European explorers and settlers, and many others had died in a series of conflicts which later became known as the French and Indian Wars. Those who survived were often forced to relocate as European settlers increasingly encroached on their lands. While some remained in larger enclaves, others broke into small groups and withdrew to areas that were less populated and outside the purview of European settlers. In addition, other Native Americans changed their names, manner of dress, and other attributes, in an attempt to assimilate, thus blending in with the new population that began settling in the area.  

In contrast to the area’s Native American population (which appears to have declined significantly following the period of European contact and for which it is difficult to assess accurate population numbers) the population of European settlers continued to grow dramatically during the closing years of the 18th century and the opening years of the 19th century. The statistics given by the Vermont Historical Society state that in the seven-year period between 1764 and 1771, the population increased from 1,000 to 7,000. And three years later, by 1774, Vermont’s population was 12,500.  

Starting in 1791, when Vermont joined the Union and became the 14th state, Vermont began participating in the official US censuses. In 1791, Vermont’s population was 85,425. Nine years later, in 1800, it had ballooned to 154,465 (an increase of 69,040), and by 1810, the population had risen to 217,895 (an increase of 63,430). One of the major factors accounting for this dramatic increase in population in the late 1700s and early 1800s was that Vermont, as a nascent state, offered land that was far more affordable than land in more settled states like Massachusetts and Connecticut. It also was rich in resources, with virgin forests that promised quick returns for those wishing to cut lumber or make potash – Vermont’s first real commercial crop.

While the population was 217,895 in 1810, in the next decade, the population rose to only 235,981, an increase of less than 20,000. There are a number of reasons for this. First, by 1810, Vermont already had a substantial population and the land that was considered most desirable, at least in the southern part of the state, had already been taken. Vermont’s population at this time consisted largely of young people, eager to start their own farms. Not surprisingly, those Vermonters who were looking to buy land often looked beyond Vermont’s borders, and there were plenty of places to look. The United States was expanding rapidly during this period, welcoming six additional states to the union in a period of a decade, and with these new states came new tracts of land that were less expensive and held more promise to farmers.

In addition to the availability of affordable farmland, natural disasters influenced migrations out of Vermont, including the famine of 1816. This famine, which was caused by the explosion of Mount Tambura in Indonesia, devastated many farmers in Vermont. Famed sculptor Hiram Powers, who lived in Woodstock, noted that his family’s crops and those of their neighbors failed and that they survived through the winter living “wholly on milk and potatoes.” The following autumn, the Powers family, and many others, decided to move West in search of better opportunities.

Still another factor affecting the population during this period was disease and illness. Without the benefit of modern medicine, even routine illnesses could turn deadly, and during the decade between 1810 and 1820, there were a number of local pandemics that were far from routine. Most notably was tuberculosis, commonly called consumption, that for a number of decades was one of the leading causes of death for early Vermonters. In addition, there was a briefer, but still devasting, outbreak of spotted fever from 1811 to 1813 that killed over 6,000 Vermont residents.

During the fifty-year period from 1820-1870, Vermont’s net population continued to increase, although not nearly as dramatically as around the turn of the century. While there were those who put down roots and stayed in Vermont, many others opted to leave for a variety of reasons. These reasons included the desire for less expensive and better farmland, the lure of urban life and better pay, and the gold rush of 1849 that sent over 10,000 Vermonters racing westward to California in search of their fortunes. The Civil War also had a major impact on Vermont’s population.  Over 5,000 men were killed on the battlefield or died from other war-related causes, and many others – having left their Vermont farms to fight in the war and having seen opportunities in other places—decided to move elsewhere.

Vermont’s population growth continued to slow during the late 19th century. Whereas the population in Vermont had increased by nearly 70,000 in a nine-year-period after Vermont became a state, the net growth between 1880 and 1890 was less than 200 people. In part this may be because of the lack of development and opportunities in Vermont, which some have attributed to the fact that Vermont was a dry state that prohibited alcohol. Other states that allowed alcohol found it easier to attract tourists and the workers necessary to support growing industries. In 1902, Vermont’s statewide prohibition was eliminated.

Moving on to the 20th century… Overall the story of Vermont’s population is one of sustained growth, although there were a couple of decades in the early 20th century in which Vermont’s population actually declined slightly. Likely the reasons for these declines included the lack of financial opportunities and the Great Depression. During this period, many farmers, unable to make a living, abandoned their hillside farms. To offset the population loss, the State of Vermont started a concerted marketing campaign to attract “desirable” people to replace them. Who were these “desirable” people? The authors of some of the state-sponsored promotional materials defined them as people engaged in professions such as doctors, lawyers, academics, artists, writers, and other types who used their “brains.”  Many people from other states responded to the advertising, and purchased second homes in Vermont, which often ended up becoming retirement homes and thereby increased Vermont’s population.

In the mid-20th century, Vermont began to witness broad scale development with the building of the interstates (1957-1982) which boosted tourism, industry, and made Vermont more readily accessible. By the mid 1960s and into the 1970s, there was another major shift in the country that affected both Vermont’s population and the culture of Vermont. Many young Americans during this period identified as being part of the “Counter Culture” - a group that embraced rural living and sought the freedom to practice their chosen lifestyles. They flocked to Vermont, attracted by its affordability, natural beauty, and tolerance of diversity. Many of these people initially set up and lived in experimental, commune-type organizations. Over time, the communes disappeared. While most of those who had been part of the Counter Culture movement ultimately joined the “mainstream,” a large number opted to remain in their adopted state rather than returning to the states in which they had grown up.

If one fast forwards to the present, while Vermont has continued to grow in population, the government continues to look for ways to attract new people to the state. Since 2018, the State has given out $1,780,000 in grants to encourage new residents to relocate. On the State of Vermont’s website it states: “Whether you are looking for greater access to world-class outdoor recreation and a safe environment to raise a family or seeking to return to New England to be closer to friends and family, the Green Mountain State has a lot to offer. Get out of the city and bring your job with you or explore a new career at an innovative Vermont business, there are many reasons to ‘ThinkVermont’. The Worker Relocation Incentive program can help subsidize your moving expenses with reimbursement grants of up to $7,500 if you move to Vermont. This program is funded through a $3.09 million one-time allocation from the Vermont Legislature and is a first come, first served program.”

Not surprisingly, the program has been very successful. In fact, it’s been so successful that the notice below was posted as of 12/5/2022.

Of course, the monetary incentive is not the only thing that is drawing people to Vermont. Vermont is renowned for its natural beauty and all the other attributes cited by the State of Vermont. Moreover, much the way that people of means have fled cities and gone to more rural areas during past pandemics (such as the late 18th-century Yellow Fever outbreak in Philadelphia and the early 19th-century outbreak in Memphis), many came to Vermont between 2020 and 2022 because of its low rate of COVID infections. 

While the COVID “bump” in the state’s population may decrease, Vermont will likely continue to be a destination of choice for many who are looking to relocate as part of the climate migration trend. Moreover, one cannot rule out the impact of legislative changes, such as the legalization of marijuana, which may attract certain groups to Vermont.

Of course, it is fairly easy to calculate the numbers and the reasons people are moving to an area. The more complicated task is understanding the impact of these population and demographic changes on the state and ensuring that these changes allow Vermont to grow and develop without hurting the very qualities for which Vermont is known and that attract people to the state.

Note: The citation below contains the link to the Vermont State Census Record data that was used as a basis for this article.

Vermont Historical Society. "Census Records." Vermont History Explorer. Accessed January 30, 2023. https://vermonthistoryexplorer.org/census-records

Further reading: Some of the topics tangentially mentioned in this article are discussed in greater detail in previous Woodstock History Center articles as well as the History Center’s exhibit Hindsight 20/20. To learn more, please look through our past articles or visit our museum when we open in June.